WASHINGTON – A new poll out Friday suggests more trouble for President Donald Trump's reelection hopes in Michigan, with the survey showing him 11 percentage points behind former Vice President Joe Biden in a head-to-head race.
The poll by EPIC-MRA of Lansing also suggests, for the second time since March, that a majority of Michiganders support replacing Trump or would consider voting for someone else. Less than a third said they would definitely reelect him.
In a head-to-head matchup, Biden, who is only one of some two dozen candidates but leads most polls among the Democratic field for the nomination, held a 52%-41% edge on Trump, who won Michigan by less than 1 percentage point in 2016.
"He (Trump) is, I think, in trouble in terms of getting reelected when Biden has numbers this strong," said pollster Bernie Porn of EPIC-MRA, which conducted the survey of 600 active and likely voters this month. "It's pretty consistent with what we've seen before on (Trump's) job approval numbers."
The poll, like any other, offers only a statistical snapshot of the electorate at a given point in time and, nine months before the Democratic primary and 17 months before the general election, there is no saying who will win the Democratic nomination or whether Trump can build more support and get reelected.
But it does indicate continued issues for the president in a state that helped him win the Electoral College vote three years ago. According to the poll:
The Biden-Trump matchup was the only head-to-head contest polled in June by EPIC-MRA even though there are nearly two dozen Democrats running for the nomination to face Trump in 2020.
Porn said that because the company — which also does polling for the Free Press — did not have media sponsors for this poll, keeping it to one matchup among the perceived front-runners allowed it to keep down costs.
The Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Biden with a solid lead in the Democratic field though that could change as the primary season begins in earnest. Later this month, the first of several debates among the Democratic candidates is set to take place in Miami, with a second debate set in Detroit July 30-31 at the Fox Theatre.
The poll also tracks what some others have found with Biden — as well as candidates including Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Kamala Harris of California, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and others — with head-to-head leads on Trump.
The EPIC-MRA poll also continued to show poor favorability ratings for Trump, with 54% of Michiganders saying they had an unfavorable view of the president compared with 40% who had a favorable view. Meanwhile, 57% said he was doing a poor or just a fair job as president compared with 41% who said he was doing excellent or good.
While 32% said they would vote to reelect Trump — virtually unchanged from the 31% who said the same in March — 45% said they would definitely vote to replace him. That was down four percentage points from March but 19% said they would consider voting for someone else, up 3 percentage points from March. Undecideds remained at 4%.
For the poll, EPIC-MRA surveyed 600 randomly selected active and likely 2020 voters from across the state between Saturday and Wednesday of this week. The interviews were done live by phone and included 30% cellphones. The margin of error of the poll is plus or minus 4 percentage points for answers involving the entire sample but would be larger for subsets of the sample such as individual age groups, regions or other demographics.
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